Governor sparks debate about when Texas will reach herd immunity

"I don't know what herd immunity is, but when you add that to the people who have acquired immunity, it looks like it could be very close to herd immunity,” said Texas Governor Greg Abbott.

That statement from Governor Abbott has sparked a national debate about whether Texas is close to herd immunity. On Fox News Sunday, the governor said if you add the people who’ve recovered from COVID-19 with the number of Texans who’ve been vaccinated, the state is on the verge of achieving that protection.

The latest numbers from the Texas Department of State Health Services show 24% of Texans are fully vaccinated against COVID-19. 38% have received at least one dose. Break down the numbers to Texans 65 and older and 53% are fully vaccinated and 67% have gotten at least one dose.

On Fox News Sunday, Governor Abbott used those numbers to make a case that Texas is closing in on herd immunity from coronavirus.

“When you look at the senior population, for example, more than 70 percent of our seniors have received a vaccine shot, more than 50 percent of those who are 50 to 65 have received a vaccine shot,” said Governor Abbott. "I don't know what herd immunity is, but when you add that to the people who have acquired immunity, it looks like it could be very close to herd immunity."

It's been a month since Governor Abbott lifted the mask mandate and allowed businesses to operate at 100% capacity. During that time, statewide COVID case rates have dropped from around 4,400 a day to about 3,000. Even with cases down and vaccinations up, there's no agreement among scientists on the point when herd immunity begins. Many put the range between 70% and 85%, but even then they say there are factors that could influence it.

“Some of the timeline on reaching that herd immunity depends on the vaccine availability but also people’s willingness to get the vaccine,” said Dr. Mark Escott, Interim Health Authority for Austin Public Health.

Dr. Escott is Austin’s top health authority. He says variants are one of the biggest variables.

“There is concern that as the variants increase, particularly the Brazilian, South African variants as well as the potential for the emergence of new variants, that new variants may be more successful at evading protections that the vaccines currently provide,” said Dr. Escott.

Health experts say any additional variants could further complicate the ability to pinpoint when a state has reached herd immunity.